The Loyalist Vote – Assembly Elections 2016

Now that the Westminster Elections for 2015 are over I have taken a quick look at the results to study where the PUP should focus and make a serious consorted campaign to get Loyalist Representation back into the Northern Ireland Assembly which these Elections shall be held in May 2016.
The same 18 number voting constituencies shall be used as the Westminster Elections with 6 MLAs being elected from each constituency. The Election Voting System shall be the same as local government council elections – Propotional Representation with (STV).

Below is the results of three Belfast Constituencies for 2015 Westminster Elections. I have added my analysis below !

East Belfast
– DUP Gavin Robinson 19,575 49.3%
– APNI Naomi Long 16,978 42.8%
– Con Neil Wilson 1,121 2.8%
– GRN Ross Brown 1,058 2.7%
– SF Niall O,Donnghaile 823 2.1%
– SDLP Mary Muldoon 127 0.3%
———–
39,682 Total Votes

We know from 2014 Local Government Council Election Results that the PUP have 3000 first preference unioist votes in this constituency. Based on the above total westminster votes the 2016 Assembly Elections Quota to be elected as an MLA shall be 6614 votes. The PUP need to eliminate other candidates and pick up their transfer votes to try to get to this quota. They also need to run a major campaign on the ground to get all their supporters registered to vote and increase that first preference vote.

North Belfast
DUP Nigel Dodds 19,096 47.0%
SF Gerry Kelly 13,770 33.9%
SDLP Alban Maginness 3,338 8.2%
APNI Jason O’Neil 2,941 7.2%
WP Gemma Weir 919 2.3%
IND Fra Hughes 529 1.3%
———–
40,593 Total Vote

We know from the Local Government Council Election Results that the PUP have 3000 first preference unionist votes in this constituency.
Based on the above total westminster results votes the 2016 Assembly Elections Quota to be elected as an MLA shall be 6766 votes. As like East Belfast Loyalism shall need to adapt the same stradegy in this side of Belfast to make it !

West Belfast
SF Paul Maskey 19,163 54.2%
PBP Gerry Carroll 6,798 19.2%
SDLP Alex Attwood 3,475 9.8%
DUP Frank McCoubrey 2,773 7.8%
UUP Bill Manwaring 1,088 3.1%
UKIP Brian Higginson 765 2.2%
APNI Gerard Catney 636 1.8%
WP John Lowry 597 1.7%
Con Paul Shea 34 0.1%
———
35,329 Total Votes

This constituency had went off the radar for Loyalism but needs to be seriously looked at again with the ‘Kitchen Sink’ being thrown at it ! I estimate that based on the Local Government Council Election the PUP have 1200 first preference votes in this constituency. To get that last seat for Unionism they need to pull out the most first preference votes of all the unionist parties and sweep up their transfers.
Based on the above total westminster results votes the 2016 Assembly Elections Quota to be elected as an MLA shall be 5890 votes.

Other constitencies that the PUP need to consider running in for the 2016 Assembly Elections are :
South Belfast, Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim, East Antrim, Strangford, North Down, Upper Bann, East Londonderry

They should be quite capable of pulling in 1500 votes in these constituencies not only to get their deposit back put also to build and use as a platform for 2018 Local Government Council Elections to get more councillors elected into local councils.

I have no doubt that because of so much unionist competition that there will be for the 2016 NI Assembly Elections that it will end up a dirty election, but the PUP needs to stay focused at the Unionist Vote Base and rise above it where all success lies, and concentrate on Transfer of all Unionist Votes from Voters to every Unionist Party.
Loyalism and especially the UPRG ran an excellent STV Transfer Scheme advising all Unionists to vote 1-2-3-4-5-6 etc all the way down the ballot paper to every Unionist Party in the 2014 Local Council Elections. This is the correct stradegy for all shades of Unionism going forward for the future.

Below is an exercise which I done based on the Belfast City Council Election Results which shows where the PUP got transfer votes from !

– DUP 753
– UKIP 231
– UUP 220
– TUV 189
– N121 120
– GRN 40
– WP 22
– SP 22
– APNI 16
– Cons 9
-SDLP 2
– SF 1

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